December 10, 2024
India’s Sugar Output Expected to Rebound to Record Levels, Potentially Reviving Exports
India is projected to achieve a record sugar production in the upcoming marketing year starting October 2025, as farmers have expanded cane cultivation due to favorable water supplies and declining prices of alternative crops. This anticipated bumper harvest could enable India to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season after a two-year hiatus caused by water shortages.
Increased water levels in reservoirs, particularly in the key producing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, have been instrumental, with both regions receiving above-average rainfall. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories forecasts a significant rise in sugarcane planting, setting the stage for a record-breaking harvest. Farmers have shifted from less profitable crops like soybeans and cotton to sugarcane, attracted by its higher returns.
Consequently, India could potentially export between 3 million to 5 million tons of sugar in the next season, contingent on favorable weather conditions. This increase in exports may influence global sugar prices, especially considering anticipated reductions in export volumes from Brazil.
